GIVE ME ONE REASON...

...That Andy Sonnanstine is starting tonight.

I refuse to be results-based with my judgments of Joe Maddon. I am not going to wait to see what happens tonight with Andy Sonnanstine’s performance before I second-guess the manager. I am going to question the decision to send him out to the hill RIGHT NOW, before the game. I hope to Boggs that I am wrong about this, but I see no reason whatsoever that Andy Sonnanstine is pitching tonight.

Do any of you have any confidence that the Rays will win tonight’s game with Sonnanstine on the hill? More importantly, do any of the other players in the lineup think the Rays will win the game with Sonnanstine pitching?

Sonnanstine was very serviceable last season and worked well as a number 5 pitcher. He averaged 6 innings a start, held opponents to a .277 average and only walked 37 all season. He ended the season 13-9 and his ERA was 4.38. These numbers are solid for a number 5 starter.

In 10 starts this season, he is averaging just about 5 innings per start, he is allowing an alarming batting average of .340, and has already walked 16 batters. In 2008, it was his 15th start before he walked his 16th batter. His current record is 3-5, and his ERA is 7.66.

I don’t want too much out of Sonnanstine. I ask for 6 innings of 3-4 runs. If he gives the Rays that consistently, he will have a winning record. So far in 2009, he cannot do that.
The season is already a third of the way over. How long of a leash can we give this guy? Joe Maddon preaches patience for all of his players. In the case of a starting pitcher who struggles to get out of the 5th inning and can’t hold a 5 run lead, how patient can a manager afford to be? Is it better to be too tolerant and let the problem fix itself or be proactive and not set the team up for failure? I would say that Maddon should be patient and let Sonnanstine fix the problem IF Andy were showing signs of improvement. He looked good against Florida, but Sonnanstine was also spotted 13 runs by the 4th inning and the game was over, he had no worries. In Sonnanstine’s next outing, he was given a 5 run cushion against Cleveland in the 1st in what seemed to be a recipe for success. By the time his outing ended, he had lost the lead, giving up 8 runs in 3 short innings. The Rays lost 12-7, unable to recover from Sonnanstine’s poor outing. In Sonnanstine’s last 4 starts, the only game in which he gave up less than 5 runs was the Florida blowout. Sonnanstine is regressing, not improving. Having fallen 6 games back in the AL East, Joe Maddon needs to start managing with a sense of urgency. If he keeps preaching patience, come early October we all will already be patiently waiting for pitchers and catchers to report.

The other reason that Andy Sonnanstine should not be starting tonight is because Joe Maddon has other and better alternatives. Maddon’s first option would be to just have Sonnanstine skip his start. Yesterday was an off day, meaning that Jeff Niemman (who has been steadily improving in case you didn’t notice) could pitch today on normal rest. This could give Sonnanstine that kick in the rear that he needs to find his game. Another choice would be to call up a pitcher from the minors and let Sonnanstine find his game in Durham. Sonnanstine has 3 options and does not have enough Major League service to require permission to be sent down. Both Wade Davis and Carlos Hernandez are very close to earning a spot on the big league club. I trust either of these pitchers to at least give the Rays a chance to win in a game that they start. Right now, I don’t have that same faith in Andy Sonnanstine.

As I said earlier, I really hope I get proven wrong. I hope Sonnanstine throws a gem that reinstates our confidence in him and forces Joe Maddon to keep him in the rotation. I don’t see that happening. If you want to try to convince me that you believe in Andy Sonnanstine and you believe he has a solid chance tonight, I would also love to hear your argument as to why you believe OJ was innocent. Please, Joe Maddon, give me one reason as to why Andy Sonnanstine is starting tonight. I don’t think you can, and the rationale for this is not rocket science.

-The Rocket Scientist

SONNY’S SUMMER HOME

Sonnanstine continues to show that he'd make a better reliever than starter, so his summer home should be in the bullpen where he apparently belongs.

For several years Joe Maddon, when asked any question in regard to Sonny, generally responds with a canned response about how Sonny warms up very quickly, which obviously points toward Sonny being a viable option for the 'pen.

The bigger and more decisive sign that points Sonny toward the bullpen is that his entire pitching career is based on deception. He doesn't have the capacity to blow heaters by batters, and doesn't have any truly filthy pitches, but he does have a variety of deliveries/arm angles and a huge array of different pitches, which enables him to be very effective the first (and sometimes second) time through the lineup. The Achilles' heel to this technique is that after seeing enough pitches from Sonny batters stop being deceived and start spraying balls all over the park.

Check out this chart if you don't want to take my word for it:

		ERA	ER
1st time thru LnUp		2.35	36
2nd time thru LnUp		6.40	91
3rd time thru LnUp		7.83	87

This alone should park Sonny in the 'pen as a mid-range to long reliever or even a possible set-up guy before someone who'll just pump fastballs by the batters (ie Balfour).

When do I think he should move in to his new summer home?

As soon as Kaz comes back into the rotation, obviously.

When (hopefully it's not and "if") Kazmir returns from the DL/rehab assignment someone from the rotation has got to go, and although Niemann hasn't been all that great, Sonny's situation would make him the more likely candidate to head to the 'pen.

Starter Shake-up?

With the 4 and 5 starters for the Rays struggling mightily (now watch Niemann pitch a no-no tonight just to make my point invalid) how soon will it be before we see a shake-up at the bottom of the rotation, and exactly how much shaking-up will there be?

We know that Maddon likes the idea of Sonny out of the pen, and we can see the potential for Niemann as a reliever, but can/would the Rays move them both to the 'pen in favor of Price who's struggling at the AAA level and Davis who's smoking the AAA level?

Let's venture a guess:


Jeff Niemann

The first question is this: with no options left for Niemann aren't the Rays' hands tied?
To me, it seems fairly simple when it comes to Niemann because I don't see any way the Rays DFA him, so its either he stays number 5, he heads to the 'pen, or the Rays deal him.
The problem with trying to deal him is that his stock is about as low as its ever been, so the return would be a loss for the Rays, thereby rending this option mute in my mind. That leaves the other two options (he stays #5 or he heads to the 'pen).

The question the Rays have to ask themselves is whether or not Price, as Niemann's potential replacement, is pitching down to the AAA level because he's annoyed/frustrated (consciously or subconsciously) about being stuck in the minors when he feels he belongs in the Bigs (especially after watching Niemann and Sonny struggle) or if he's truly not ready for the call-up. If you call him up and he's not ready it could cause serious damage down the line, so the process is a delicate one.

I feel like the decision on Niemann has more to do with Price than it does Niemann, and judging by Maddon's lack of faith/trust in Niemann I'm guessing he feels the same way. Its almost as if they've made it blatantly obvious that Jeff's just keeping the seat warm for King David (which may have been obvious to some, but probably wasn't obvious to Jeff until recently).
The next question becomes: If they decide to replace Niemann with Price then who gets pushed out of the bullpen? I'd say Cormier would be the choice to get the hook given the fact that Niemann would become the long reliever thus making Lance's services unnecessary.

My opinion: I haven't changed my stance on Niemann, I still think he should pitch out of the 5 spot all season because I think he's got some filthy stuff and he'll work it out sooner than later.
I'm afraid the Rays don't agree though. I say they'll call-up Price, move Niemann to the 'pen, and either shop Cormier or send him to the DL until they can figure out what to do with him.



Andy Sonnanstine

Sonny's situation is quite the quagmire for me because we know the guy can win games, we know that historically he's a fairly efficient pitcher, and we know that because of his efficiency he's capable of helping rest the bullpen because he typically makes it deep into games.
On the other hand, when he's off he's usually way off, so in those cases he has the exact opposite effect on the bullpen (see last night's game in Baltimore).

So what do the Rays do with Sonnanstine? The options for Sonny are fairly limited as well; move him to the 'pen or deal him.
If the Rays make the move to call-up Price in favor of Niemann then the only viable replacement for Sonny, in my mind, is Wade Davis. That being said I just don't feel as if the Rays are going to allow Davis to advance from AAA to replace a guy who already has several years of experience as a starter in the Bigs. Add to that that this would be admitting publicly that they made a mistake by choosing Sonny over Edwin Jackson, which most organizations aren't fond of doing, and I don't see it happening.

So if promoting Davis and pushing Sonny to the 'pen aren't viable solutions that leaves dealing him to another team, but the same problem applies here as with Niemann in that his stock is riding pretty low right now. I don't see any scenario where both Sonny and Niemann are moved to the 'pen and I don't see any way that the Rays try to shop Sonny either, so I've come to my conclusion by default.

My Opinion: Sonny stays as the #4 starter for the rest of the season, or until the Rays fall way off pace and decide to see what Davis has to offer. Then in 2010 he'll either be moved to the bullpen or traded for prospects.