GIVE ME ONE REASON...

Here's our latest installment of GM1R:


Give Me One Reason...
Why the Rays can't sweep the Marlins.

Not that I want to look past the end of the Philly series, but looking forward to the "exciting conclusion" of the Citrus Series, this weekend could prove to be quite the springboard for the Rays who have obviously struggled with consistency all season. The Marlins will head into town tomorrow (Friday) for a 3-game set. Coming into Thursday night Florida has won 4 in a row and are 1 game over .500, but historically the Rays have played well v. the Marlins, and they're due for another run. Both the Yankees and Jays are within reach and what better time to start digging-in to catch Boston than right now against their downstate rivals?


Give Me One Reason...
Why CC shouldn't be forced to take over at lead off.

If you've watched the Rays at all this season you've seen how inept at leading-off BJ Upton is, but more importantly you've noticed how lead-off-esque Carl Crawford's at bats typically are. While Joe Maddon has stood firm by his decision to put BJ at lead-off this season, CC has become one of the scrappiest batters in the league (this is where a good writer would site how many pitches he sees per at bat v. the league average). It seems as if Crawford has been stretching every AB into a full count and really chewing-up the opposing pitcher's pitch count which is exactly one of the primary roles of a lead-off guy. He is also sporting a much better BA than Upton (.310 v.244). Another point to consider is this; if CC is leading-off then the bases will be clear for him to steal whenever the opportunity presents itself. Whereas, although Upton is also fairly quick, if he leads-off and gets-on ahead of Crawford then CC's base running prowess is compromised (until BJ inevitably gets himself picked-off, of course). CC has repeatedly said that he doesn't like hitting out of the lead-off spot and Maddon has stubbornly and repeatedly insisted that BJ's the guy no matter what, but come on man, since when have egos gotten in the way of winning in Tampa?


Give Me One Reason...
Why moving Sonnanstine to the 'pen isn't the wisest option in light of Kaz's return.

With Kaz penciled-in to return any day now the rotation shuffle is mere hours away. Several possibilities have been floating around the Rays-iverse for a week or so now, and the most popular scenarios seem to be; move Niemann to the 'pen, send Sonny down to Durham, send Sonny to the 'pen, or demote Price. In my opinion sending Price down is out of the question, so that leaves Sonny to the 'pen, Niemann to the 'pen, or Sonny to Durham. Niemann has shown that his stuff can be filthy, and I believe that moving him to the 'pen now would seriously handcuff his development so check that one of the list too. That leaves the two scenarios regarding Sonny. Many times Maddon has either hinted or blatantly stated that Sonny would make an ideal reliever; he warms up quickly, and he's much tougher to hit the first time through the lineup as I documented here last month. He's never been dominant, but he's shown for several years that he's Big League (4th or 5th man) material. Sending him to Durham would accomplish nothing, as Sonny's mechanics are sound, so there's really nothing for him to work on down there. It does the Rays no good to send someone who could contribute to the team down to Durham and hold-on to lesser relievers in the Bigs. So, give me one reason why Sonny won't head to the 'pen.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

...That Andy Sonnanstine is starting tonight.

I refuse to be results-based with my judgments of Joe Maddon. I am not going to wait to see what happens tonight with Andy Sonnanstine’s performance before I second-guess the manager. I am going to question the decision to send him out to the hill RIGHT NOW, before the game. I hope to Boggs that I am wrong about this, but I see no reason whatsoever that Andy Sonnanstine is pitching tonight.

Do any of you have any confidence that the Rays will win tonight’s game with Sonnanstine on the hill? More importantly, do any of the other players in the lineup think the Rays will win the game with Sonnanstine pitching?

Sonnanstine was very serviceable last season and worked well as a number 5 pitcher. He averaged 6 innings a start, held opponents to a .277 average and only walked 37 all season. He ended the season 13-9 and his ERA was 4.38. These numbers are solid for a number 5 starter.

In 10 starts this season, he is averaging just about 5 innings per start, he is allowing an alarming batting average of .340, and has already walked 16 batters. In 2008, it was his 15th start before he walked his 16th batter. His current record is 3-5, and his ERA is 7.66.

I don’t want too much out of Sonnanstine. I ask for 6 innings of 3-4 runs. If he gives the Rays that consistently, he will have a winning record. So far in 2009, he cannot do that.
The season is already a third of the way over. How long of a leash can we give this guy? Joe Maddon preaches patience for all of his players. In the case of a starting pitcher who struggles to get out of the 5th inning and can’t hold a 5 run lead, how patient can a manager afford to be? Is it better to be too tolerant and let the problem fix itself or be proactive and not set the team up for failure? I would say that Maddon should be patient and let Sonnanstine fix the problem IF Andy were showing signs of improvement. He looked good against Florida, but Sonnanstine was also spotted 13 runs by the 4th inning and the game was over, he had no worries. In Sonnanstine’s next outing, he was given a 5 run cushion against Cleveland in the 1st in what seemed to be a recipe for success. By the time his outing ended, he had lost the lead, giving up 8 runs in 3 short innings. The Rays lost 12-7, unable to recover from Sonnanstine’s poor outing. In Sonnanstine’s last 4 starts, the only game in which he gave up less than 5 runs was the Florida blowout. Sonnanstine is regressing, not improving. Having fallen 6 games back in the AL East, Joe Maddon needs to start managing with a sense of urgency. If he keeps preaching patience, come early October we all will already be patiently waiting for pitchers and catchers to report.

The other reason that Andy Sonnanstine should not be starting tonight is because Joe Maddon has other and better alternatives. Maddon’s first option would be to just have Sonnanstine skip his start. Yesterday was an off day, meaning that Jeff Niemman (who has been steadily improving in case you didn’t notice) could pitch today on normal rest. This could give Sonnanstine that kick in the rear that he needs to find his game. Another choice would be to call up a pitcher from the minors and let Sonnanstine find his game in Durham. Sonnanstine has 3 options and does not have enough Major League service to require permission to be sent down. Both Wade Davis and Carlos Hernandez are very close to earning a spot on the big league club. I trust either of these pitchers to at least give the Rays a chance to win in a game that they start. Right now, I don’t have that same faith in Andy Sonnanstine.

As I said earlier, I really hope I get proven wrong. I hope Sonnanstine throws a gem that reinstates our confidence in him and forces Joe Maddon to keep him in the rotation. I don’t see that happening. If you want to try to convince me that you believe in Andy Sonnanstine and you believe he has a solid chance tonight, I would also love to hear your argument as to why you believe OJ was innocent. Please, Joe Maddon, give me one reason as to why Andy Sonnanstine is starting tonight. I don’t think you can, and the rationale for this is not rocket science.

-The Rocket Scientist

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

WHY MELVIN UPTON IS STILL LEADING-OFF.
Okay, so the player formerly known as BJ has been making a little more solid contact, and he's hit a couple of homers over the last 10 days or so. So what. Lead-off guys are supposed to be a weapon- consistently on-base, patient at the plate, aggressive on the base-paths. Well, Melvin has fit one of those 3 traits so far this season, but even when he's aggressive on the base-paths he still seems prone to miscues and mistakes. I love Upton as much as the next guy, and I realize that he will be a great player, and that he's a huge asset to the Devil Rays, that being said- there is no way he should be leading-off. I wouldn't let him lead-off for my son's little league team right now. I'm thrilled that he's showing signs, but I'm ready for results.


WHY GABE GROSS ISN'T PLAYING MORE.
Lets just clear the air- first and foremost, Gabe Gross is the best rightfielder on the roster, bar none. Now that we've settled that let's figure out exactly why he's not playing more. Can you seriously tell me that you'd rather have Gabe Kapler in the game (even against left-handers)? Gross' average v lefties: .600 (3 for 5). Kapler's average v. lefties: .250 (10 fro 40). This should be a no brainer. Gross should be the "everyday" guy with Zobrist starting v. select lefties and pinch-hitting for Gross in the clutch. Kapler should be sent packing.


WHY THE DEVIL RAYS CAN'T LEAD THE DIVISION BY THIS TIME NEXT MONTH.
As we speak (I know that we're not actually speaking- its just a figure of speech, really) the Devil Rays are 4.5 games behind division leading Toronto, 4 back of Boston, and 3 back of New York. In the span of the next month the Devil Rays play several very winnable series (Cleveland, KC, Washington, and Colorado), they also have several tough series (Minnesota, LAA, and New York). This particular series against New York could determine who's headed for a pennant run and who's headed back to the drawing board. The road won't be easy, but keep in mind that Tampa has played very inconsistent baseball all season and are still only a stone's-throw away from the division lead. If they can catch their stride there just isn't any one particular team playing well enough to stop them from re-taking their rightful place atop the AL East.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

....Why Carlos Pena had the night off Sunday.

There are some decisions Joe Maddon makes that are second guessed on a daily basis. The defensive shifts, the over-aggressive running, and the lack of bunting are standard topics on talk radio. I will never second guess a manager for being over-aggressive. When Joe Maddon played the numbers by bringing the outfield in and Brett Gardner got lucky and hit the ball over Carl Crawford’s head, then I praised Gardner for doing a good job at the plate rather than blame Maddon for making a mistake. Gardner exceeded his expectations, God bless him. In this case, the manager is doing his best to win the game and this move will work out more often than not in the long run.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why Carlos Pena had the night off Sunday night. I know his numbers against Beckett aren’t stellar. I know that the Rays are coming onto a stretch of 20 games in 20 days. Quite frankly, I don’t care. The Rays are a better team and have a better chance to win with Carlos Pena in the lineup.

Carlos Pena was coming into the game hitting .136 against Beckett, striking out 13 times in 22 at bats. However, Pena’s presence in the lineup means more than just his bat. Pena provides protection for Evan Longoria. Evan has been scary-good this year, and a very substantial reason is that the major league homerun leader is batting right behind him. Pitchers have to try to let Evan put the ball in play and create outs, rather than let another man on base for Pena to hit a bomb. Also, Pena is an everyday player because of his (gold) glove. He is one of the best first basemen in the American League. He is a very solid decision maker, and having him in the field saves runs. That was clearly shown by the mental lapses and the mediocre defense played by Willy Aybar at first Sunday night.

The Rays are coming upon a streak of 20 straight games. Before that streak starts, the Rays had a day off yesterday. In my mind, one of the most maddening and confusing things that Joe Maddon does is give starting players a day off on the day before a day off. These are professional baseball players, athletes who train on a daily basis throughout the year to be in the best shape possible. Why do they need 2 days off in a row? If Maddon wants to give players a scheduled day off in the middle of these 20 games, I agree with that. We all know he is going to do this anyway. I know the players get tired and sore playing that many games in a row, so give them a day off and let them rest up for the back end of the streak. I cannot fathom why on Earth Joe Maddon would give players a day off on the day before a day off. I have seen him do this a number of times with Jason Bartlett. Ask Cal Ripken Jr., the owner of the Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays Class A minor league affiliate) how often he needed to rest during his streak of 2632 consecutive games.

It is Joe Maddon’s job to give the Rays the best possible chance to win. By putting Carlos Pena on the bench in a national TV game against the Red Sox, he failed. The Rays are a much better team with Carlos Pena in the lineup, rather than in the whirlpool. Anyone can figure that out, it’s not rocket science.

-The Rocket Scientist

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

GIVE ME ONE REASON...


...WHY PENA WON'T HIT 50 HR'S THIS SEASON.
With only 24 games behind us in the 2009 season the player known as El Gato has already accumulated 10 homers. If you stretched that out over an entire season that would put him on pace for... wait for it... 68 home runs this season. Now, I'm certain he'll have a few slumps, but its getting harder and harder to come up with a reason why he can't end up with at least 50.


...WHY NAVI HAS GOTTEN LAZY.
Dioner Navarro had a break-out season last year, and was rewarded with a trip to New York for the All-Popularity game, but so far this season has done nothing but underperform. At the time of this post his BA is an anemic .173 and he has an OBP of .184. Statistically there is no real way to quantify how poorly he's played defensively to open the season, as they don't have a stat for "lazy". I do find it interesting that he's only been charged with 2 past-balls so far this season considering I saw 2 during the last Kazmir start alone. If you've been watching the games you've seen the obvious mistakes, as-in stabbing at the ball with the glove while still on his haunches versus making the text book slide to stop the ball. His laziness is starting to cost the Rays runs (or more specifically assisting the other team in scoring them) and that's unacceptable. As a catcher, if you're not playing well defensively, then its impossible to see past how poorly you're performing offensively. What happened? Navi trimmed down during the abbreviated offseason, so he'd be quicker, but the opposite has occurred. Some people (myself included) are starting to view it as a lack of hunger due to the fact that he made it through arbitration, got himself a nice paycheck and has put it on cruise-control. I hope I'm wrong, but the point remains the same; Navi's gotten lazy.


...BJ UPTON CAN NO LONGER HIT.
After hitting an acceptable .273 last season, and having a phenomenal post-season, during which he hit .288 and smashed 7 homers in 16 games, Bossman underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum. I seem to remember hearing at that point that BJ has had the same or a similar injury the past 6 years running and that he intended to change his swing so as to avoid re-re-re-re-re-re-injuring his shoulder. If that were the case I'd say, okay it'll take awhile for him to reprogram his body for his new swing, and at first I cut him some slack, but from what I can tell his swing has not changed- so why can't he hit? So far this season he's hitting .185 with a grand total of zero home runs. He has brought his OBP up to .316 by taking 13 walks, which is nice, but we want and need more from BJ.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

...WHY THE RAYS ONLY WIN GAMES WHERE THEY SCORE 172 RUNS.
Let's take a look at the disparity between the number of runs the Rays are scoring in their wins versus the runs they are scoring in defeat. Under normal circumstances you could give me a big "duh" on this, but the run differential is crazy: In the 5 games that the Rays have won so far this season they've averaged 8.6 runs per game whereas in the 8 losses they've averaged only 2.4 runs per game. So is the pitching/defense so bad that they need to put up 9 runs per game to get a W? No! A resounding "no". Then why?

...WHY EVERYONE SUDDENLY FEELS LIKE JOE MADDON IS CLUELESS.
So CC and Upton have both been made to look foolish several times by playing too shallow, and a few opposing players have taken advantage of some overly-zealous shifts, but why is every Rays' fan in the universe suddenly convinced that Joe Maddon is completely clueless? Yes, a few mistakes have been exposed, and yes a few odd bullpen decisions have been made, but suddenly the same people who praised Joe's progressive thinking with shifts and bullpen management last season are organizing lynch mobs early in this one. Listen, I don't agree with a few of the decisions that Joe has made so far, but it's easy to sit here as an outsider and pick apart every coaching decision in retrospect, but lets not forget that part of what led to the Rays success last season was Joe's philosophies and formulas for winning, so sit back relax and leave the managing to the defending AL Manager of The Year.
I'll make you a deal, the first time the Rays fall to 12 games behind the AL East leader I'll grab the rope and help organize the mob. Until then, open a Corona and relax baby, its baseball season.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

As a continuation of a segment I started late last season I'm re-introducing "Give Me One Reason". Which is fairly self-explanatory. So without any further useless babble here is 2009's first installment of "Give Me One Reason":

GIVE ME ONE REASON...

...WHY WE SHOULD PUT UP WITH IZZY'S MOUTH.
Isringhausen, who has been touted as a bit of a handful, has lived up to that reputation in his short stay with the Rays organization thus far. First he comes to spring training and requests James Shields' locker, which in and of itself is just ridiculous, just to stroke his own ego (Shields acquiesced by the way (like a true pro/good person)).
Now, just as quickly as I'd forgiven him of his first sin, he turns around and starts mouthing off about his extended spring training assignment (which he accepted) saying he's, "not getting anything out of facing high school kids.” (St Pete Times)
Hey Izzy, until you prove that you're even worthy of a roster spot just shut-up and "know your role"! You've been put "on notice" (see side-bar)

...WHY EVAN LONGORIA ISN'T THE (VERY) EARLY FAVORITE FOR AL MVP.
Dirtbag has flown out of the gates to start the 2009 season, and has shown no signs of slowing down. After week one Longoria has already been awarded the AL Player of the Week. Evan leads the AL in homers with 5, is 4th in the league with a BA of .467, is tied for the league lead with 12 RBI, and is sporting an OBP of .484, a slugging percentage of 1.100 and an OPS of 1.584. Dirtbag has also accumulated 4 doubles while walking once and striking out 5 times.

...WHY GABE KAPLER STRUCK OUT FACING NICK SWISHER.
I understand that situations like this are lose/lose for hitter; if you record a hit against an infielder who's pitching well great, you're supposed to, but if you don't then you're a knucklehead. But there's a huge difference between recording an out versus an infielder who's pitching (ie. Aybar, Pena) and actually being struck out by one!
Gabe Kapler's inherent value lies in the fact that he's a wily veteran presence who can still play the game, so what does that value equal when you can't have a decent at bat against the guy who was just playing 1st base?
I understand he probably just wanted to go home and that the at-bat was unimportant and meaningless, but striking out in that instance is unacceptable.
Gabe Kapler you've also been put "on notice"!

Give Me One Reason...

GIVE ME ONE REASON...
Why Percival is still the Rays Closer:

Percival has been nothing short of a determent, at best, since the all-popularity break. Percy has been on and back off of the DL twice since the break, and is now "day-to-day" for the remainder of the season.
Since returning from his latest trip to the DL he has been underwhelming to say the least: 2.1 innings, 5 hits, 5 walks, 7 runs! And trust me on this; if Jason Hammel has to come into the game to relieve you during the 14th inning (Sept. 10 v. Boston) then its time to take a seat and watch for a while (well done Mr. Hammel, by the way). Those numbers are indicative a young, inexperienced middle reliever not the man known as having the 9th most saves in league history.

If the Rays truly believe that they can make a run at the Series then its in the team's best interest to sit Percy down for the remainder of the season and let him get back to some semblance of his early-season form. Until then Grant Balfour or Dan Wheeler can hold down the fort nicely, I'm sure. In fact, I'm fairly certain that Balfour (what an unfortunate surname for a pitcher) will be Tampa's closer next season.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...
Rays fans shouldn't be routing their hearts out for Toronto:

Toronto began a 4-game set with Boston last night (Friday). Although the 'Sawx' dismantled them 7-0 in game one of the series the Jays are as hot as any team in baseball right now, going 24-11 since early August and holding opposing batters to an OBP of only .300. If they can find a way to win at least 2 of the next 3 against the Sox then the Rays will be one giant step closer to putting it into cruise control as they waltz into the post-season for the first time ever, and as AL East division champs to boot! Gives me goose-pimples just thinking about it.

GIVE ME ONE REASON...
Why Joe Maddon isn't Manager of The Year:

Admittedly I'm not the biggest supporter of Joe 'Jimmy Buffet' Maddon, but despite all of his misuse of pitchers (see Trevor Miller) and lack of utilizing the bunt/sacrifice he has propelled a perenial loser into the stratosphere, a team whose season is usually all-but-over by mid-June, and turned them into real, legitimate contenders.
Albeit he has a ton of talent, the likes of which Tampa has never seen, but someone's gotta keep them boys in line, and I believe Joe has been great at making sure that no one is "above the law" (i.e. BJ Upton) and keeping the wheels from falling off (especially during that pre-all-star-break-meltdown). Joe has worked around an incredible rash of injuries down the stretch and has all of his bench players over-achieving (ie Ruggiano, Riggans). In my opinion Maddon's a shoe-in for the award. Period.

sidenote: Cliff Floyd should get honorable mention as co-manager or player/coach. Some GM somewhere should be paying attention to how well he handles the young guys, and should convince him to manage their club as soon as he hangs up the cleats (prob. after this season).