Saturday, August 29, 2009

How Much Will the Kaz Deal Cost the Rays This Season?

Let's gather some perspective on whether or not dealing Kazmir is a matter of waving the white flag for the 2009 season:

The facts:
  • Kazmir would have made 7 more regular season starts- at the most. More likely 6 due to the possibility for a 6th starter in September or a reshuffling of the rotation in order to make a playoff push.
  • Kazmir's career numbers show us that he wins about 55% of his starts.


  • Lets assume Kaz would've won 4 of those 6 or 7 remaining starts (as per his career numbers).
  • Lets also assume, for the sake of argument, that Sonnanstine gets the call-up. Sonny's career numbers show us that he wins 49% of his starts.
  • So given those numbers can't we assume that he (Sonny) would be most likely to win 3 of those 6 or 7 starts?

Given that set of facts and using a very reasonable set of assumptions isn't fair to say that trading Kazmir should potentially only cost the Rays 1 game?

Most likely the Rays now have the salary space to excercise their option on CC for next season and all it cost them in terms of success was 1 game in 2009 (a campaign which is holding-on by a thread anyways). From that angle it looks like a smart move.

Its hard to argue with that logic, but go ahead and try, I dare ya.


Michael Weber said...

Your logic is flawed in that you're assuming that the Rays will use the money they saved on Carl Crawford. I won't believe that until I see it.

Also, when it comes to projecting, you're discounting the psychological aspect to this trade. Even under the best of circumstances, it sends a definite message to the team that management is willing to sacrifice this year for next year.

DirtbagFan said...

My logic may be flawed, but I honestly think that the guys on the inside have a much different perspective than we do.
The image is typically blurred looking from the outside in...