Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Repeat Runs

The Rays lead the league in runs per game (5.7 RPG), and have managed to score 10 or more runs in 10 of their 66 games thus far in 2009. That means that more than once a week the Rays have some sort of offensive explosion. In fact, twice they've scored 15 runs, and they've scored 12 or more runs in 7 games (including 12 last night at Coors Field).
Since May 1st the Rays have scored 10 or more runs 6 times.

Here's where I've done some research and found an interesting tidbit: In the 6 games following those 10+ run games the Rays have only managed to put together 3.8 runs per game.
So basically, in other words, every time the Rays have a big offensive performance during which they score 10 or more runs they only manage to plate 3.8 runs the following day. Nearly 2 full runs less than their season average of 5.7 RPG.

Furthermore, one of those 10+ run games was followed by another 10+ run game (v. the Marlins 5/22 and 5/23- and becomes the exception to the rule), so that actually pads their average RPG after a 10+ run game. If we were to throw-out that one game which they managed to back-up with another 10 run performance the disparity between their season average RPG and their RPG after a 10+ run game would be even larger: 2.6 runs per game in games following 10+ run games, or a difference in RPG of 3.1 runs.

So as the Rays prepare to tee it off in Colorado again tonight hopefully they can use the rarefied air to start minimizing the RPG disparity following big offensive days, because I'm afraid that 2.6 runs per game just isn't going to cut it, especially not in Colorado.

Whenever the Rays start tacking on runs Mrs DirtbagFan always tells them to save some of those runs for the next day.
I agree.

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