Friday, May 15, 2009

RESULTS: Eternal Optimism of a Simple Mind

Below you'll find a post from 2 weeks ago where I boldly predicted a fairly optimistic, game-by-game scenario for each of the AL East's "big three" which has now been updated with the actual results from each team. I think you'll find that I was shockingly close to correctly assessing each team's 14 game results. Although there may have been 2 or 3 individual games which were missed along the way the 14 game and overall records landed remarkably close to what I had predicted.

Despite the Rays inability to consistently win games they nearly accomplished what I, and others, originally considered a very optimistic 2 week prediction. In fact one of our writers (Dustin) proclaimed in the comments section of the original post:

"If this dream scenario actually comes to pass, I will be singing and dancing in the streets of New York…"

Well Dustin, start dancing , or at least tapping your toe, because despite it all, it played out about as well as it could have.

As the charts indicate I missed each team's actual overall record by just one game; with New York and Tampa Bay finishing 1 game worse than I had expected (thanks to The Rays' great effort last night) and Boston doing 1 better than predicted. With results like these I should be getting calls from major TV networks asking for my playoff predictions soon. My breath is official being held.


ORIGINAL POST (with results added):

Everyone knows that I always lean toward the pessimistic side, but today I've turned over a new leaf. Today I present to you the most optimistic outcome of the upcoming 2 weeks that I can possibly fathom while staying within the realm of reality.

I've gone through the schedules for Boston, New York, and of course Tampa for a span of the next 14 games and worked out what I believe could be the possible outcome of each game and have calculated to see where the pieces fall as of May 14th.

TAMPA BAY

PREDICTED

ACTUAL

Boston

W

W

Boston

W

W

Boston

L

L

Boston

W

W

Baltimore

W

L

Baltimore

W

W

@New York

L

W

@New York

W

W

@Boston

W

L

@Boston

L

W

@Boston

L

L

@Baltimore

W

L

@Baltimore

L

W

Cleveland

W

L

Record from 4/30- 5/14

9-5

8-6

Overall Record as of May 14th

17-19

16-20

BOSTON

PREDICTED

ACTUAL

@Tampa Bay

L

L

@Tampa Bay

L

L

@Tampa Bay

W

W

@Tampa Bay

L

L

@New York

W

W

@New York

L

W

Cleveland

W

L

Cleveland

L

W

Tampa Bay

L

W

Tampa Bay

W

L

Tampa Bay

W

W

LAA

W

W

LAA

L

L

LAA

L

L

Record from 4/30- 5/14

6-8

7-7

Overall Record as of May 14th

20-15

21-14

NEW YORK

PREDICTED

ACTUAL

LAA

W

W

LAA

L

W

LAA

W

L

LAA

L

POSTPONED

Boston

L

L

Boston

W

L

Tampa Bay

L

L

Tampa Bay

W

L

@Baltimore

L

W

@Baltimore

W

L

@Baltimore

W

W

@Toronto

L

L

@Toronto

W

W

@Toronto

L

W

Record from 4/30- 5/14

7-7

6-7

Overall Record as of May 14th

18-16*

17-17


*The May 3rd Yankees v. Angels game (which I predicted as a NY loss) was postponed, so I've adjusted their record accordingly by taking away one loss from my projected standings as of May 14th.

1 comment:

Dustin Fridkin said...

This, and the Rays way-too-exciting walkoff win tonight, do indeed have me doing a demure little soft shoe around North Brooklyn. I'll break into a full on salsa if (a) the Rays start making some serious headway in the standings, (b) starting pitching starts sticking around past the 5th inning more often, and (c) the bullpen stops being an adventure. I know that, no matter how ugly, a win's a win, and walk-off taters are fun. But I'm pretty sure a season of wins like this one will take several years off my life.